Nickel’s OPEC sits in Jakarta, and this month the tape is not trading a quota. It is trading a rumour the ministry will not confirm.

Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources ($MIN) Ministry drew the line in July. ANTARA, 11 July 2026, quoting Director General of Minerals and Coal Tri Winarno the day before in Jakarta: there will be no comprehensive addition to the national nickel production quota. Exceptions, he said, only “to catch up on smelters that are still short of supply,” and those increases “will not be significant.” The point of the policy, on that page, is to stop an oversupply that knocks global prices over. RKAB revisions could still be filed under ESDM Ministerial Regulation Number 17 of 2025 until 31 July 2026; they are not automatic. ANTARA has the 2026 national nickel production quota capped at 250 million to 260 million tons, against 379 million tons allocated under the 2025 RKAB. That is the July official print. Date it.[1]

Later wires print a different band. FT Mercati, carrying Petromindo dated 10 August, has MEMR on 18 June holding the national target at 260–270 million tonnes, with “no directive” to relax it. Mysteel, 24 August, has the 2026 RKAB quota “set at 260–270 million tonnes” against the same 379 million 2025 target. The desk will not average the two bands. ANTARA in July printed 250–260. June and August wires printed 260–270. Both against 379 million authorised in 2025. Print both. Date them.[1][2][3]

The rumour that actually moved London was not the national band. It was one mine.

On 6 August, FT Mercati has reports that one of Indonesia’s largest nickel mines could receive a substantial second-half ore-quota increase. PT Weda Bay Nickel was subsequently identified. The ministry confirmed Weda Bay had applied for an increase in its 2026 RKAB, stressed that the request remained under assessment, and disclosed no volumes. No additional allocation had been officially approved. The market did not wait. Petromindo, as carried by FT Mercati, has three-month LME nickel falling as much as 3.2 per cent to $16,565 a tonne on 6 August, its lowest in nearly three weeks, on speculation Indonesia could grant a major mine a substantial additional quota.[3]

One sentence: the 25-million-tonne Weda Bay figure circulating that week is a rumour. It has not been granted on any page we opened. MEMR said the application was still under assessment. Treat a granted top-up as a fact and you are trading a number the ministry refused to print.[3]

June was the dress rehearsal. Six days after the 18 June “no directive” line, media reports suggested a nationwide lift to 360 million tonnes from around 260 million. MEMR rejected the figure. Daily three-month LME nickel fell to $16,825 a tonne on 24 June from $17,295 on 23 June — $470, or 2.72 per cent. Same pattern: unconfirmed figure, London reprices, ministry says not yet.[3]

What Weda Bay actually holds is in Eramet’s 29 July 2026 press release — the H1 primary, opened. PT WBN obtained an initial 2026 RKAB for 12 million wet metric tonnes of nickel ore, including 3 million tonnes of internal sales, down more than 70 per cent versus 2025 (32 million tonnes initially, then 42 million in July that year). The mine went into care and maintenance in May after reaching the initial quota. A revision request was filed in July, described as consistent with prior-year volumes and aimed at the Indonesia Weda Bay Industrial Park, whose ore needs Eramet estimates at more than 110 million wmt a year. Guidance on that page: external sales of 9 million wmt “on the basis of the initial 12 Mwmt RKAB, pending approval of an upward revision submitted in early July.” Pending. Not approved.[4]

On 24 August, APNI closed the rumour from the other side. Mysteel has Mining Advisory Board Chairman Djoko Widajatno saying that Monday that none of its members had received revised RKAB approvals. Members have begun preparing 2027 submissions, window opening October 2026. ESDM had previously claimed about a dozen nickel companies had received revision approvals, without disclosing volumes. APNI’s line is simpler: no member has the paper.[2]

The squeeze is not a secret. FT Mercati has FINI estimating installed RKEF and HPAL capacity could require about 340–350 million wet metric tonnes of ore in 2026 — above the national framework. In July, MEMR said revisions would be limited to smelter shortages, with no major national increase. Actual 2025 production, on that page, reached 320.37 million tonnes, above the 2026 framework and well below the ~379 million authorised for 2025. An RKAB is a ceiling, not a shipping schedule. Markets still trade the permit.[3]

Bahlil has argued that publishing individual allocations could generate international volatility. Petromindo’s observation, via FT Mercati: the vacuum is what lets an unconfirmed Weda Bay figure reprice LME 3.2 per cent before the ministry has said yes. Jakarta is nickel’s supply-policy setter. This month it is also the rumour setter.[3]

Who is winning is the ministry, so long as the ceiling holds and the exceptions stay “not significant.” Who is offside is anyone who treated 6 August as a granted Weda Bay top-up, and anyone who still needs a single national number when ANTARA’s July band and the June/August 260–270 million band are both on the record and not the same print. The desk is not writing 25 million tonnes as approved. APNI, as of 24 August, says the revised paper has not even landed.

This commentary is independent. It is not financial, legal, or tax advice. Readers should verify ESDM notices, RKAB instruments and company filings themselves. Commodity prices change.

This is an opinion piece. It reflects the views of the CoCCuLiNi Desk, is based on the sourced facts cited below, and is not a statement of fact about any company or person.

Sources

  1. ANTARA, 11 July 2026. https://en.antaranews.com/news/422261/indonesia-limits-nickel-quota-expansion-to-support-global-prices

  2. Mysteel, 24 August 2026. https://www.mysteel.net/news/5138224-flash-apni-has-confirmed-that-its-member-companies-have-not-yet-received-approval-for-their-2026-rkab-revisions

  3. FT Mercati, 10 August 2026, sourcing Petromindo. https://www.ftmercati.com/en/indonesia-s-rkab-quota-rumors-emerge-as-a-powerful-nickel-price-signal-exposing-176910.html

  4. Eramet press release, 29 July 2026. https://www.eramet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/2026-07-29-Eramet-PR-H1-2026-EN.pdf

Opinion and commentary — the desk’s own views, grounded in the sourced facts above. Nothing here is investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Spotted an error? Tell the desk — we correct in the open.

The Take: Jakarta is nickel’s OPEC. The tape is trading rumours the ministry will not confirm. ESDM capped 2026 ore against 2025’s 379 million authorised tonnes and said no broad lift. ANTARA in July printed 250–260 million; later wires print 260–270 million. An unconfirmed Weda Bay top-up sent LME down 3.2 per cent; the application was still under assessment. APNI, 24 August: no member has a revised RKAB. Do not write 25 million tonnes as granted. Analysis, not a price forecast, not advice.