Co · The Cobalt Desk

Cobalt

The metal everyone wants out of their battery — and can't quit.

Bulls vs. Bears — CobaltThe state of the argument, from recent news flow

The Bull Case

  • Nickel-rich cathodes still need some cobalt for thermal stability at the premium, long-range end.
  • Supply is a by-product of DRC copper — nobody mines cobalt for its own sake, so it can't ramp on demand.
  • Western buyers will pay up for traceable, non-DRC, non-China units they can actually source.
  • Glencore's hand on the Mutanda switch puts a credible floor under the price.
  • Defense and aerospace superalloy demand is sticky and price-insensitive.

The Bear Case

  • LFP chemistry uses zero cobalt and keeps taking EV market share.
  • Cathode makers have thrifted cobalt loading down for a decade and aren't done.
  • DRC + Chinese midstream means structural oversupply whenever copper economics are good.
  • The 2018 scarcity panic aged badly; demand keeps undershooting the bull forecasts.
  • Artisanal and provenance risk caps how much Western OEMs will design cobalt in.
49NeutralHeat Index · 0–100
Price momentum54
News flow46
Equity performance44
Weights: news 30 · momentum 35 · volume 10 · equity 25

Prices (US$)

Cobalt
US$/t
27,500+4.0%
6M
+6.0%
1Y
49

Full prices & Heat Index methodology →

Cobalt is the cathode stabilizer that the industry keeps swearing it will engineer away, and keeps not engineering away. Supply is brutally concentrated — the DRC and its Zambian neighbours do the heavy lifting, and a lot of the midstream runs through China. Every "cobalt-free chemistry" headline deserves a hard look at whether the chemistry actually ships at scale, or just ships in a press release.

Latest takes

Cobalt operations on the map

OperationCountryOwnerStage
Tenke FungurumeDR CongoCMOC (China Molybdenum)Producing
MutandaDR CongoGlencoreProducing

See all of these on the interactive Global Mine Map →