Li · The Lithium Desk

Lithium

The most violent price chart in the complex. Mind the units.

Bulls vs. Bears — LithiumThe state of the argument, from recent news flow

The Bull Case

  • No credible mass-market battery chemistry replaces lithium this decade.
  • Low prices are curtailing supply and killing projects — sowing the next squeeze.
  • Grid-scale storage is a second demand engine on top of EVs.
  • Western buyers want ex-China lithium chemicals and will pay to de-risk.
  • Permitting and ramp delays mean new supply chronically arrives late.

The Bear Case

  • The market is violently reflexive — every spike over-invites supply.
  • Brine, claystone and DLE expansions can flood the market when prices recover.
  • There is no real scarcity of lithium in the crust — only of cheap, fast supply.
  • EV demand forecasts keep getting cut; the curve is softer than 2022 assumed.
  • Most juniors sit high on the cost curve and don't survive a low-price year.
36CoolHeat Index · 0–100
Price momentum35
News flow38
Equity performance34
Weights: news 30 · momentum 35 · volume 10 · equity 25

Prices (US$)

Lithium Carbonate
US$/t (LCE)
10,800-12.0%
6M
-26.0%
1Y
36

Full prices & Heat Index methodology →

Lithium is the core battery metal and the most reflexive market in the basket — it overshoots up, overshoots down, and takes a lot of juniors with it. Brine vs hard-rock, LCE vs hydroxide vs carbonate: the units decide the argument, so we keep them straight.

Latest takes

Lithium operations on the map

OperationCountryOwnerStage
GreenbushesAustraliaTalison (Tianqi/IGO + Albemarle JV)Producing
Salar de AtacamaChileSQM & Albemarle (CORFO leases)Producing
Thacker PassUnited StatesLithium Americas (GM offtake)Construction

See all of these on the interactive Global Mine Map →