Cu · The Copper Desk

Copper

If you believe in electrification, you are long copper whether you admit it or not.

Bulls vs. Bears — CopperThe state of the argument, from recent news flow

The Bull Case

Grid, EVs, renewables and AI data-centre power all bid for the same copper at once.
Discovery-to-first-metal runs 15–20 years — supply physically can't answer a near-term deficit.
Head grades are falling at the major porphyries; more rock, less metal, higher cost.
Almost no tier-one greenfield discoveries in a decade; the cupboard is thin.
Electrification of the developing world is barely started.

The Bear Case

Copper is deeply cyclical — a China/global slowdown guts demand fast.
Thrifting, aluminium substitution and better recycling chip at intensity of use.
Record prices invite capital; the supply response is late but real.
DRC and other new supply is growing faster than the deficit narrative admits.
High prices can demand-destroy at the margin in construction and wiring.

64WarmHeat Index · 0–100

Price momentum60

News flow68

Equity performance66

Volume64

Weights: news 30 · momentum 35 · volume 10 · equity 25

Prices (US$)

Copper US$/t	14,293	+5.0% 6M	+16.4% 1Y		64

Full prices & Heat Index methodology →

Copper — trailing price

Live

The desk — term structure & inventories

What the spot price won't tell you: the shape of the futures curve (who's paying up for metal now) and where warehouse stock is heading. Figures are indicative until a live LME/CME feed is wired.

Copper

Backwardation-1.4% / yr1-yr roll +1.8%

Spot trades over deferreds — the market is paying up for metal now. Tight physical, bullish tell.

LME 3M + COMEX deferreds (indicative)

Drawing-45.7% (12 mo)LME + COMEX + SHFE

Latest 278 kt · Exchange stock reports (indicative)

Copper is the conductor of everything — grid, EVs, motors, renewables, data centres. The bull case writes itself; the hard part is supply. Grades are falling, the best orebodies are deep or political, and a new mine takes the better part of two decades from discovery to first metal.

Latest takes

Cu · Copper

Two decades, one copper giant, and a boardroom that slipped away: the full Celsius Resources story in the Philippines

Celsius Resources spent 18 years building a world-class copper-gold deposit in Kalinga Province and clearing every regulatory hurdle the Philippines could throw at it — then lost the boardroom to its own local partner six months after booking its maiden ore reserve. A full accounting of what happened and why.

Jul 21, 2026CoCCuLiNi DeskConviction

Cu · CopperHard Truths

Celsius holds 40% of an 856kt copper mine — and just lost the boardroom to its Filipino partner. Ten Sixty Four lost the same way.

Celsius Resources is in arbitration with its 60% local partner Sodor over control of the MMCI vehicle that holds the MCB copper-gold project, echoing the dispute that pushed Ten Sixty Four into administration over its Co-O gold mine.

Jun 19, 2026CoCCuLiNi DeskConviction

Cu · CopperThe Water Cooler

Capstone is printing record EBITDA at $13,700 copper — and the Mantoverde ramp is still a year out

Capstone Copper posted its sixth straight record quarterly EBITDA into all-time-high copper prices while its Mantoverde Optimized expansion advances toward a Q4 2026 ramp.

Jun 19, 2026CoCCuLiNi DeskConviction

Cu · CopperThe Water Cooler

Copper near $13,700 and a zero TC/RC: Freeport is at 60%, Ivanhoe is ramping, and somebody's offside

LME copper sits near $13,700/t after a record $14,527.50 in January, as mine disruptions, AI-and-grid demand and a US tariff scramble collide with stretched speculative positioning.

Jun 17, 2026CoCCuLiNi DeskConviction

Cu · CopperThe Long Game

Everyone says they're long electrification. Almost nobody is long enough copper.

The copper bull case is the most consensus idea in metals and still the most underbuilt. The problem was never demand. It's that you can't permit and dig your way out of a structural deficit in under a decade.

Jun 15, 2026CoCCuLiNi DeskConviction

Cu · Copper

How to read a junior explorer's press release without getting played

A field guide to the language juniors use when they want your money. Bonanza intercepts, 'district-scale potential,' and the difference between a discovery and a stock promotion. Companies, not just commodities, get covered here.

Jun 4, 2026CoCCuLiNi DeskConviction

Copper operations on the map

Operation	Country	Owner	Stage
Escondida	Chile	BHP (op.), Rio Tinto, JECO	Producing
Kamoa-Kakula	DR Congo	Ivanhoe Mines / Zijin JV	Producing
Grasberg	Indonesia	Freeport-McMoRan / PT Freeport Indonesia	Producing
Los Pelambres	Chile	Antofagasta plc	Producing
Quellaveco	Peru	Anglo American (60%) / Mitsubishi (40%)	Producing
Oyu Tolgoi	Mongolia	Rio Tinto / Government of Mongolia	Producing

See all of these on the interactive Global Mine Map →