Teck generated more cash. QB still needs a more reliable operating quarter.
The unaudited Q3 accounts show stronger cash generation, while weather disrupted QB and tailings work continues. Reported profit also includes a large impairment reversal.
Cu · The Copper Desk
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Copper
If you believe in electrification, you are long copper whether you admit it or not.
Bulls vs. Bears — CopperThe state of the argument, from recent news flow
The Bull Case
- Grid, EVs, renewables and AI data-centre power all bid for the same copper at once.
- Discovery-to-first-metal runs 15–20 years — supply physically can't answer a near-term deficit.
- Head grades are falling at the major porphyries; more rock, less metal, higher cost.
- Almost no tier-one greenfield discoveries in a decade; the cupboard is thin.
- Electrification of the developing world is barely started.
The Bear Case
- Copper is deeply cyclical — a China/global slowdown guts demand fast.
- Thrifting, aluminium substitution and better recycling chip at intensity of use.
- Record prices invite capital; the supply response is late but real.
- DRC and other new supply is growing faster than the deficit narrative admits.
- High prices can demand-destroy at the margin in construction and wiring.
65WarmHeat Index · 0–100
Model demonstration: news, volume and equity inputs are illustrative.
Prices (US$)
| Copper US$/t · Fetched futures · 2026-10-29 | 14,510 | +11.1% 6M | +28.0% 1Y | 65 |
Copper — trailing price
Fetched futures · 2026-10-29The desk — term structure & inventories
What the spot price won't tell you: the shape of the futures curve (who's paying up for metal now) and where warehouse stock is heading. Figures are indicative until a live LME/CME feed is wired.
Copper
Illustrative example — not current exchange quotes. This curve does not update automatically.
Backwardation-1.4% / yr1-yr roll +1.8%
Spot trades over deferreds — the market is paying up for metal now. Tight physical, bullish tell.
Sample data for explaining term structure.
Illustrative example — not reported exchange stocks. These values do not update automatically.
Drawing-45.7% (12 mo)LME + COMEX + SHFE
Final sample value 278 kt · Sample data for explaining inventory trends.
Copper is the conductor of everything — grid, EVs, motors, renewables, data centres. The bull case writes itself; the hard part is supply. Grades are falling, the best orebodies are deep or political, and a new mine takes the better part of two decades from discovery to first metal.
Latest takes
29Metals has lowered the water. Capricorn still needs approvals and funding.
The September report separates progress at Capricorn Copper from a restart decision. Golden Grove's December recovery also matters after a weaker sales quarter.
Sandfire's dividend almost matched the quarter's cash generation. Read the deductions.
The copper miner paid US$117m and retained US$342m net cash. Its cash bridge explains more than EBITDA or a low Motheo C1 cost alone.
Antofagasta's copper costs depend on gold and molybdenum
Antofagasta's latest report shows how stronger by-product credits can cushion rising copper-production costs. Investors need both figures to judge resilience.
BHP's copper price rose sharply. Its production went the other way.
BHP's September-quarter review pairs stronger realised copper prices with lower production. Grade, maintenance and operating reliability remain central to the return from a copper investment.
ICSG’s copper forecast leaves room for surplus and tight feed
The new October forecast still projects more refined copper than the world uses. It also describes constrained concentrate availability. The distinction matters to miners, processors and industrial customers.
BHP’s US$4.3 billion silver cheque comes with future deliveries
BHP has turned future Antamina silver into capital while retaining its copper exposure. The transaction shows why investors should examine delivery obligations alongside reported debt.
Copper smelters are paying for feed. Who pays if they stop?
Negative processing fees favour concentrate sellers. Zinc and lead show similar strains, but the economic damage depends on whether smelter distress becomes a shortage of usable metal.
Copper producers also need reliable sulphuric-acid supplies
Sulphur and sulphuric acid belong in the mining risk model. The 2026 disruption shows why a resource estimate cannot tell you whether a plant has the inputs to run.
The copper tariff deadline came and went. Traders have built America a strategic stockpile for free.
The September checkpoint for a decision on US refined-copper tariffs passed without an announcement. The COMEX premium has closed, but close to 700kt of copper is still in US warehouses while Shanghai's exchange stocks have fallen to 47kt.
Two decades, one copper giant, and a boardroom that slipped away: the full Celsius Resources story in the Philippines
Celsius Resources spent 18 years building a world-class copper-gold deposit in Kalinga Province and clearing every regulatory hurdle the Philippines could throw at it — then lost the boardroom to its own local partner six months after booking its maiden ore reserve. A full accounting of what happened and why.
Capstone is printing record EBITDA at $13,700 copper — and the Mantoverde ramp is still a year out
Capstone Copper posted its sixth straight record quarterly EBITDA into all-time-high copper prices while its Mantoverde Optimized expansion advances toward a Q4 2026 ramp.
Celsius holds 40% of an 856kt copper mine — and just lost the boardroom to its Filipino partner. Ten Sixty Four lost the same way.
Celsius Resources is in arbitration with its 60% local partner Sodor over control of the MMCI vehicle that holds the MCB copper-gold project, echoing the dispute that pushed Ten Sixty Four into administration over its Co-O gold mine.
Copper near $13,700 and a zero TC/RC: Freeport is at 60%, Ivanhoe is ramping, and somebody's offside
LME copper sits near $13,700/t after a record $14,527.50 in January, as mine disruptions, AI-and-grid demand and a US tariff scramble collide with stretched speculative positioning.
Everyone says they're long electrification. Almost nobody is long enough copper.
The copper bull case is the most consensus idea in metals and still the most underbuilt. The problem was never demand. It's that you can't permit and dig your way out of a structural deficit in under a decade.
How to read a junior explorer's press release without getting played
A field guide to the language juniors use when they want your money. Bonanza intercepts, 'district-scale potential,' and the difference between a discovery and a stock promotion. Companies, not just commodities, get covered here.
Copper operations on the map
| Operation | Country | Owner | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Escondida | Chile | BHP (op.), Rio Tinto, JECO | Producing |
| Kamoa-Kakula | DR Congo | Ivanhoe Mines / Zijin JV | Producing |
| Grasberg | Indonesia | Freeport-McMoRan / PT Freeport Indonesia | Producing |
| Los Pelambres | Chile | Antofagasta plc | Producing |
| Quellaveco | Peru | Anglo American (60%) / Mitsubishi (40%) | Producing |
| Oyu Tolgoi | Mongolia | Rio Tinto / Government of Mongolia | Producing |