Ni · The Nickel Desk

Nickel

Two different metals wearing the same name. Indonesia changed the game.

Bulls vs. Bears — NickelThe state of the argument, from recent news flow

The Bull Case

  • High-nickel cathodes deliver the energy density premium EVs want.
  • Class-1 sulphide nickel is genuinely scarce — Indonesia mostly makes class 2 feed.
  • Western producers in care-and-maintenance have removed supply that's slow to restart.
  • Stainless steel demand provides a large, durable demand floor.
  • ESG-screened buyers will pay a premium for clean, non-laterite units.

The Bear Case

  • Indonesia's HPAL/matte wave flattened the cost curve and crushed the price.
  • Class-2-to-class-1 conversion erased the old battery-grade scarcity story.
  • Most marginal Western mines are simply uneconomic at these prices.
  • Chinese-backed Indonesian capacity keeps expanding regardless of price signals.
  • LFP's rise trims the high-nickel cathode growth case.
39CoolHeat Index · 0–100
Price momentum44
News flow36
Equity performance32
Volume52
Weights: news 30 · momentum 35 · volume 10 · equity 25

Prices (US$)

Nickel
US$/t
16,400-5.0%
6M
-10.0%
1Y
39

Full prices & Heat Index methodology →

Nickel is really two markets: class 1 (the high-purity stuff batteries want) and class 2 (ferronickel, NPI, the stainless feed). Indonesia's laterite-and-HPAL build-out, much of it China-backed, has reshaped the whole cost curve and torched a lot of Western producers' economics.

Latest takes

Ni · Nickel

Indonesia didn't win the nickel war. It changed what winning means.

A wall of Indonesian laterite and HPAL capacity, much of it China-backed, has flattened the cost curve and left a graveyard of Western nickel producers. Pretending class 1 and class 2 are the same metal is how you misread the whole thing.

Jun 14, 2026CoCCuLiNi DeskConviction

Nickel operations on the map

OperationCountryOwnerStage
SorowakoIndonesiaPT Vale IndonesiaProducing
RaglanCanadaGlencoreProducing

See all of these on the interactive Global Mine Map →