Ni · The Nickel Desk

Nickel

Two different metals wearing the same name. Indonesia changed the game.

Bulls vs. Bears — NickelThe state of the argument, from recent news flow

The Bull Case

High-nickel cathodes deliver the energy density premium EVs want.
Class-1 sulphide nickel is genuinely scarce — Indonesia mostly makes class 2 feed.
Western producers in care-and-maintenance have removed supply that's slow to restart.
Stainless steel demand provides a large, durable demand floor.
ESG-screened buyers will pay a premium for clean, non-laterite units.

The Bear Case

Indonesia's HPAL/matte wave flattened the cost curve and crushed the price.
Class-2-to-class-1 conversion erased the old battery-grade scarcity story.
Most marginal Western mines are simply uneconomic at these prices.
Chinese-backed Indonesian capacity keeps expanding regardless of price signals.
LFP's rise trims the high-nickel cathode growth case.

39CoolHeat Index · 0–100

Price momentum44

News flow36

Equity performance32

Volume52

Weights: news 30 · momentum 35 · volume 10 · equity 25

Prices (US$)

Nickel US$/t	16,400	-5.0% 6M	-10.0% 1Y		39

Full prices & Heat Index methodology →

Nickel — trailing price

Indicative

The desk — term structure & inventories

What the spot price won't tell you: the shape of the futures curve (who's paying up for metal now) and where warehouse stock is heading. Figures are indicative until a live LME/CME feed is wired.

Nickel

Contango+3.7% / yr1-yr roll -3.8%

Deferreds trade over spot — comfortable supply and positive carry. A long rolling the front bleeds the spread.

LME forward (indicative)

Building+93.5% (12 mo)LME

Latest 178 kt · LME stock report (indicative)

Nickel is really two markets: class 1 (the high-purity stuff batteries want) and class 2 (ferronickel, NPI, the stainless feed). Indonesia's laterite-and-HPAL build-out, much of it China-backed, has reshaped the whole cost curve and torched a lot of Western producers' economics.

Latest takes

Ni · NickelThe Water Cooler

Jakarta is now nickel’s OPEC. The tape is trading rumours the ministry will not confirm.

ESDM capped 2026 nickel ore against 2025’s authorised tonnes and said it would not grant a broad lift. An unconfirmed Weda Bay top-up sent LME down; the ministry said the application was still under assessment. On 24 August APNI said no member had received a revised RKAB. The 25-million-tonne figure is a rumour. It has not been granted.

Aug 30, 2026CoCCuLiNi DeskConviction

Ni · NickelThe Long Game

BHP shut 400kt of WA nickel — now a US$2.30/lb Brazilian mine and a 3.3% Kambalda shoot get the field to themselves

With high-cost Australian nickel idled, two sulphide developers — Centaurus Metals' Jaguar in Brazil and Lunnon Metals' Baker at Kambalda — are advancing first-quartile, Class-1-bound projects into a structurally tighter market.

Jun 19, 2026CoCCuLiNi DeskConviction

Ni · NickelHard Truths

Indonesia didn't win the nickel war. It changed what winning means.

A wall of Indonesian laterite and HPAL capacity, much of it China-backed, has flattened the cost curve and left a graveyard of Western nickel producers. Pretending class 1 and class 2 are the same metal is how you misread the whole thing.

Jun 14, 2026CoCCuLiNi DeskConviction

Nickel operations on the map

Operation	Country	Owner	Stage
Sorowako	Indonesia	PT Vale Indonesia	Producing
Raglan	Canada	Glencore	Producing
Moa	Cuba	Moa JV — Sherritt International / GNC (Cuba)	Producing

See all of these on the interactive Global Mine Map →