C · The Carbon Desk

Carbon

Graphite is the anode nobody photographs. It's also a chokepoint.

Bulls vs. Bears — CarbonThe state of the argument, from recent news flow

The Bull Case

  • Graphite is roughly half a lithium-ion cell by weight — demand scales directly with batteries.
  • Processing (spheronising, coating, synthetic) is the chokepoint, and China controls it — scarcity value for anyone outside it.
  • China's graphite export controls hand Western anode projects a strategic premium overnight.
  • IRA and EU rules subsidise non-Chinese anode supply that barely exists yet.
  • Synthetic graphite is energy-intensive — a cost floor that supports natural flake economics.

The Bear Case

  • China can crush nascent Western anode projects on price whenever it chooses.
  • Building a full processing ecosystem outside China is brutally hard and slow.
  • Natural vs synthetic substitution muddies any clean supply-shortage thesis.
  • Anode demand is hostage to overall EV growth, which keeps getting revised down.
  • Most non-Chinese projects need policy support and offtake just to break even.
55NeutralHeat Index · 0–100
Price momentum57
News flow58
Equity performance50
Weights: news 30 · momentum 35 · volume 10 · equity 25

Prices (US$)

Graphite (flake)
US$/t
780+6.0%
6M
+10.0%
1Y
55

Full prices & Heat Index methodology →

Carbon here means the anode side of the battery — natural and synthetic graphite — plus the coke that still underwrites global steel. Graphite supply and processing is overwhelmingly China-dominated, which makes it the quiet leverage point in the whole electrification story. We cover the chokepoint honestly.

Latest takes

Carbon operations on the map

OperationCountryOwnerStage
BalamaMozambiqueSyrah ResourcesCare & Maintenance
Vidalia (anode plant)United StatesSyrah ResourcesProducing

See all of these on the interactive Global Mine Map →