Fe · The Ferrous Desk · (beyond the basket)

Ferrous

Iron ore, met coal and steel — the dirty backbone the clean economy is bolted to.

Bulls vs. Bears — FerrousThe state of the argument, from recent news flow

The Bull Case

  • Every grid, turbine, EV and mine needs enormous quantities of steel.
  • Iron ore is the cash machine that bankrolls the majors' copper and nickel bets.
  • Premium hard coking coal supply is constrained and slow to replace.
  • Indian and developing-world steel demand has a long runway.
  • Decarbonising steel (DRI, green H2) is decades away — met coal isn't going anywhere soon.

The Bear Case

  • Chinese property and construction weakness hangs over iron ore demand.
  • Scrap-based electric-arc steelmaking slowly erodes primary iron ore intensity.
  • Met coal faces terminal-decline narratives, ESG capital flight and financing risk.
  • Iron ore supply from the majors is abundant and low-cost.
  • Carbon border taxes and green-steel mandates threaten the coking-coal model.
42NeutralHeat Index · 0–100
Price momentum40
News flow40
Equity performance41
Volume53
Weights: news 30 · momentum 35 · volume 10 · equity 25

Prices (US$)

Iron Ore (62% Fe)
US$/t
102-10.0%
6M
-14.0%
1Y
39
Coking Coal (premium HCC)
US$/t
188-12.0%
6M
-18.0%
1Y
40
Steel (HRC, US)
US$/short ton
760-4.0%
6M
-8.0%
1Y
45

Full prices & Heat Index methodology →

The ferrous complex isn't in the acronym, but you can't read mining without it. Iron ore funds the majors that fund everything else; metallurgical (coking) coal still makes the steel; and steel is the skeleton the energy transition hangs on. We cover it straight — including the coal — because pretending steel runs on vibes helps nobody.

Latest takes

Ferrous operations on the map

OperationCountryOwnerStage
Pilbara (iron ore hubs)AustraliaBHP, Rio Tinto, FortescueProducing
Bowen BasinAustraliaBHP/Mitsubishi (BMA), Glencore, othersProducing
CarajásBrazilValeProducing

See all of these on the interactive Global Mine Map →