Fortescue's CMRG negotiations matter after the ore leaves Australia
September sales were 3.9Mt below shipments. The full quarterly report makes product placement and conditional guidance central to the iron-ore case.
Fe · The Ferrous Desk · (beyond the basket)
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Ferrous
Iron ore, met coal and steel — the dirty backbone the clean economy is bolted to.
Bulls vs. Bears — FerrousThe state of the argument, from recent news flow
The Bull Case
- Every grid, turbine, EV and mine needs enormous quantities of steel.
- Iron ore is the cash machine that bankrolls the majors' copper and nickel bets.
- Premium hard coking coal supply is constrained and slow to replace.
- Indian and developing-world steel demand has a long runway.
- Decarbonising steel (DRI, green H2) is decades away — met coal isn't going anywhere soon.
The Bear Case
- Chinese property and construction weakness hangs over iron ore demand.
- Scrap-based electric-arc steelmaking slowly erodes primary iron ore intensity.
- Met coal faces terminal-decline narratives, ESG capital flight and financing risk.
- Iron ore supply from the majors is abundant and low-cost.
- Carbon border taxes and green-steel mandates threaten the coking-coal model.
42NeutralHeat Index · 0–100
Model demonstration: news, volume and equity inputs are illustrative.
Prices (US$)
| Iron Ore (62% Fe) US$/t · Illustrative sample · 2026-06-16 | 102 | -10.0% 6M | -14.0% 1Y | 39 | |
| Coking Coal (premium HCC) US$/t · Illustrative sample · 2026-06-16 | 188 | -12.0% 6M | -18.0% 1Y | 40 | |
| Steel (HRC, US) US$/short ton · Illustrative sample · 2026-06-16 | 760 | -4.0% 6M | -8.0% 1Y | 45 |
Iron Ore (62% Fe) — trailing price
Illustrative sample · 2026-06-16The desk — term structure & inventories
What the spot price won't tell you: the shape of the futures curve (who's paying up for metal now) and where warehouse stock is heading. Figures are indicative until a live LME/CME feed is wired.
Iron Ore (62% Fe)
Illustrative example — not current exchange quotes. This curve does not update automatically.
Backwardation-6.9% / yr1-yr roll +10.9%
Spot trades over deferreds — the market is paying up for metal now. Tight physical, bullish tell.
Sample data for explaining term structure.
The ferrous complex isn't in the acronym, but you can't read mining without it. Iron ore funds the majors that fund everything else; metallurgical (coking) coal still makes the steel; and steel is the skeleton the energy transition hangs on. We cover it straight — including the coal — because pretending steel runs on vibes helps nobody.
Latest takes
MinRes cut debt in September. The bond coupons arrive later.
Onslow's operating progress is real, but September had little cash interest and October starts to reflect higher diesel prices. The quarterly timing matters.
India's steel growth needs a little arithmetic
worldsteel's October outlook gives India a substantial role in forecast steel-demand growth. Converting that into an Australian iron ore or coal thesis requires more than comparing percentage growth rates.
Simandou’s ramp-up has a long journey from mine gate to sales
Rio’s third-quarter update puts Simandou at an annualised production rate of about 10 million tonnes. Its reporting notes explain why mine output, sales and shareholder cash need separate treatment.
Macarthur clears a second WA hurdle for a Lake Giles bulk test — the tell is the mobile crusher
Macarthur Minerals received an additional Programme of Work approval from WA's DMPE for proposed hematite and magnetite bulk sampling in the Central region of its 100%-owned Lake Giles Hematite Project, complementing an April 2026 PoW.
Queensland's 40% Coal Royalty Isn't Just High. It's a Different Kind of Tax Than Its Rivals Charge.
Queensland's top coal royalty rate is 40 per cent — nearly four times the Queensland Resources Council's cited global average of 12.9 per cent, and above New South Wales (10.8 per cent), the current US federal coal royalty (7 per cent), and British Columbia's net-revenue tax (2–13 per cent, and only after capital is recovered). QRC is a lobby group with an obvious stake in that comparison, but the design flaw underneath it — a price-tier royalty with no reference to cost — is real regardless of who's pointing at it.
BHP will not give you a headcount for the last trucks at Mining Area C
The Nightly reported on 28 August 2026 that BHP is cutting roles at Mining Area C as autonomous haulage expands into MAC East. Industry sources, not the company, floated ‘up to about 10 per cent’ of a 1,596 headcount; BHP has not confirmed a number.
Two appeals, opposite directions: Fortescue’s Yindjibarndi award is not the last word
On 26 August 2026 the WA government and the Yindjibarndi Ngurra Aboriginal Corporation both appealed the May Federal Court native-title compensation award against Fortescue. The cultural figure is reported as A$150 million; the economic-loss line is not.
Mineral Resources Is Up Big Since the Board Told Chris Ellison to Go — Except He Never Actually Went
Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) shares have roughly quadrupled from their 2025 low since the board announced in November 2024 that founder Chris Ellison would step down within 18 months — but the exit that supposedly justified the sell-off, and the recovery, never actually happened.
Champion Iron is about to flip half of Bloom Lake to 69% Fe — the quality trade gets a producer
Champion Iron expects first commercial DR-grade pellet feed from its Bloom Lake DRPF project by the end of June 2026, upgrading roughly half of the mine's output toward 69% Fe just as steel decarbonisation lifts demand for low-impurity ore.
Vitrinite's $400m, Bowen's $6.8m: coking coal's cost-of-capital trap
Three Bowen Basin coking-coal names — Vitrinite, Bowen Coking Coal and Fitzroy — have all hit the wall or changed hands in under a year, and the common thread is the price of money, not the price of coal.
Queensland's 40% Coal Royalty: BMA Pays A$0.67 on the Dollar, and Bowen Got No Deferral
Queensland's 2022 progressive coal royalty, topping out at a 40% marginal rate, is now reshaping investment and production decisions across the Bowen Basin's coking-coal producers.
Iron ore isn't sexy. It's just the reason the whole sector has any money.
The least glamorous tonne in mining bankrolls the most glamorous bets. Before you get excited about a copper growth pipeline, ask where the cash to build it comes from. The answer is usually red dirt from the Pilbara.
Ferrous operations on the map
| Operation | Country | Owner | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Giles | Australia | Macarthur Minerals | Development |
| Pilbara (iron ore hubs) | Australia | BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue | Producing |
| Onslow Iron | Australia | Mineral Resources | Producing |
| Vulcan Complex | Australia | Vitrinite (in receivership — KordaMentha / Cor Cordis) | Care & Maintenance |
| Bowen Basin | Australia | BHP/Mitsubishi (BMA), Glencore, others | Producing |
| Carajás | Brazil | Vale | Producing |