Mkt · The Markets Desk · (beyond the basket)Markets
Prices, demand drivers, M&A, and the macro that moves all of it.
Bulls vs. Bears — MarketsThe state of the argument, from recent news flow
The Bull Case
- Electrification is a multi-decade, capital-hungry demand supercycle for metals.
- Chronic underinvestment in new supply across the complex sets up future squeezes.
- Reshoring and friend-shoring add a strategic premium to ex-China supply.
- M&A is heating up as majors buy growth they failed to explore for.
- Real assets look attractive against a backdrop of fiscal excess.
The Bear Case
- A global growth scare hits every cyclical metal at once.
- China is both the demand engine and the swing supplier — a double-edged dependency.
- Policy can giveth (subsidies) and taketh (bans, tariffs, taxes) without warning.
- Capital chases the last cycle's winners straight into the next oversupply.
- Rates and the dollar can overwhelm any micro supply story for quarters at a time.
The cross-cutting desk: where the money, the policy, and the demand curves meet the rocks. This is where ferrous and precious meet the battery basket, where the M&A gets dissected, and where the macro backdrop everything trades against gets called.
Latest takes
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Mkt · MarketsThe ferrous complex sets the macro mood for mining; precious metals set the fear gauge. Both move capital toward and away from the battery basket. A quick map of the markets behind the markets.
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