Mkt · The Markets Desk · (beyond the basket)

Markets

Prices, demand drivers, M&A, and the macro that moves all of it.

Bulls vs. Bears — MarketsThe state of the argument, from recent news flow

The Bull Case

Electrification is a multi-decade, capital-hungry demand supercycle for metals.
Chronic underinvestment in new supply across the complex sets up future squeezes.
Reshoring and friend-shoring add a strategic premium to ex-China supply.
M&A is heating up as majors buy growth they failed to explore for.
Real assets look attractive against a backdrop of fiscal excess.

The Bear Case

A global growth scare hits every cyclical metal at once.
China is both the demand engine and the swing supplier — a double-edged dependency.
Policy can giveth (subsidies) and taketh (bans, tariffs, taxes) without warning.
Capital chases the last cycle's winners straight into the next oversupply.
Rates and the dollar can overwhelm any micro supply story for quarters at a time.

The cross-cutting desk: where the money, the policy, and the demand curves meet the rocks. This is where ferrous and precious meet the battery basket, where the M&A gets dissected, and where the macro backdrop everything trades against gets called.

Capital raisings

Selected debt and equity raisings across the metals complex, as reported. Fields not disclosed by the issuer are marked n/d. Not investment advice — verify against the company's filings.

Issuer	Type	Amount	Date	Broker(s)	Pricing / terms	Use of funds
Mineral Resources MIN Lithium / iron ore	Debt	US$1.3bn	Apr 2026	n/d	6.00% (2032) / 6.25% (2034) coupon · US$650m due 2032 + US$650m due 2034	Refinance higher-cost debt; extend maturities and cut average cost of debt from 8.4% to 7.4%.	↗
Nouveau Monde Graphite NMG Graphite	Equity	US$96.5m	Apr 2026	BMO Capital Markets, National Bank Financial	n/d	Matawinie mine / Bécancour anode development; 52.4m subscription receipts at US$1.84.	↗
Nouveau Monde Graphite NMG Graphite	Equity	US$213.2m	Apr 2026	n/d	n/d	Strategic placement (Canada Growth Fund, Investissement Québec, ENI) for Matawinie commercial development.	↗
New Found Gold NFG Gold	Equity	US$115.1m	Apr 2026	EdgePoint Investment Group, Eric Sprott (cornerstone)	n/d	Part of a ~US$205m package to develop the Queensway gold project, Newfoundland (bought deal, closed Apr 2026).	↗
New Found Gold NFG Gold	Debt	US$105m	Apr 2026	EdgePoint Investment Group	n/d	Senior secured credit facility alongside the equity raise to fund Queensway gold development.	↗
Selkirk Copper Mines SCMI Copper	Equity	C$30.0m	Apr 2026	Canaccord Genuity, Haywood Securities, Raymond James, Stifel	n/d	Bought deal (incl. flow-through) for the Minto copper-gold-silver project; upsized from C$20m on demand.	↗
LaFleur Minerals LFLR Gold	Equity	C$8.0m	May 2026	Red Cloud Securities	n/d	Bought deal (up to C$9.2m with over-allotment) for the Beacon gold mill restart and Swanson exploration.	↗
Eramet ERA Nickel / manganese	Equity	€500m	May 2026	n/d	n/d	Rights issue (pre-emptive) approved 27 May 2026 to repair the balance sheet after a debt jump; backed by the Duval family and French state.	↗
Graphite One GPH Graphite	Equity	C$30m	Feb 2026	BMO Capital Markets	n/d (units at C$1.75) discount	Anode-plant engineering, permitting and working capital for Graphite Creek, Alaska.	↗
Québec Nickel QNI Nickel	Equity	C$0.5m	Jan 2026	n/d	n/d (units at C$0.125) discount	Non-brokered placement for working capital, exploration and strategic opportunities.	↗

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