The IEA’s 2026 critical-minerals outlook reports that investment fell 9% in 2025. Battery-metal capital spending declined more than 20%, while copper-focused spending rose 8%. These are historical report-period figures, not an October tally of approved projects.
Our opinion: a future supply problem can begin with a perfectly sensible decision to stop spending money today. The important word is “can”. Less investment is not proof of a shortage, and certainly not a stock recommendation.
Capital discipline has two versions
We welcome the version that stops a poor project consuming another dollar. We worry about the version that prevents a technically credible, commercially useful project from progressing because its financing window is too short for its development needs.
The same falling expenditure number could contain both. An aggregate series cannot tell us which projects were abandoned, delayed, redesigned or completed more cheaply. It deserves investigation rather than a compulsory bullish conclusion.
Our preferred test has three parts. What saleable output has been deferred? What assumptions made that output economic? What must happen for financing to resume? A project with unresolved recoveries is not equivalent to one with demonstrated metallurgy and a temporary funding gap.
For exploration, the question would be whether reduced work narrows the pipeline of credible opportunities. For construction, it would be whether a delay changes a realistic delivery schedule. For an operating mine, it would be whether sustaining expenditure is being postponed. These are questions for the filings, not conclusions supplied by the index.
Scarcity does not rescue every project
The strongest objection to the shortage thesis is that spending may be falling because the market needs less new capacity, because existing supply is more competitive, or because investment has become more efficient. Those explanations deserve the same attention as a supply warning.
Even an eventual shortage would not validate every abandoned project. A high future price does not repair bad assumptions retroactively. We would rather see an honestly smaller project with a credible path to delivery than an enormous resource paired with an elastic timetable.
What would change our view? A pipeline delivering durable new production despite lower spending would weaken the concern. Repeated delays to demonstrably viable capacity, alongside resilient demand, would strengthen it. We would want evidence on both sides.
The Take: capital restraint can protect investors and constrain future supply at the same time. The useful story is which tonnes disappear from the schedule, and why.
*Opinion and analysis, 10 October 2026. Investment observations refer to 2025 in the IEA’s 2026 report. *