Canberra's new forecast: iron ore shrinks, gold takes second place, and the transition metals don't fill the hole

This is an opinion piece. It reflects the views of the CoCCuLiNi Desk, is based on the sourced facts cited below, and is not a statement of fact about any company or person.

The September Resources and Energy Quarterly puts 2026–27 export earnings at A$422b. Beneath that, the department expects iron ore earnings to fall by A$28b in real terms by 2030–31. Copper is rising, but critical minerals as a group ease over the same years.

The Take. The new Resources and Energy Quarterly does not show copper and critical minerals replacing iron ore. Measured on the same basis, in 2026–27 dollars from 2026–27 to 2030–31, the department's iron ore forecast falls by A$28 billion while critical minerals slip by A$3 billion. Copper is the only one of the three heading up, and it reaches A$19 billion. Anyone planning a budget around the transition should start from that table, not the press release.

The headline

The Department of Industry, Science and Resources published the September 2026 REQ on 2 October. Resource and energy export earnings are forecast to rise from A$403 billion in 2025–26 to about A$422 billion in 2026–27. They then ease to A$391 billion in 2027–28 and to A$379 billion in 2030–31, or A$343 billion in real terms.

Much of the near-term lift is energy. LNG earnings are forecast to jump from A$57 billion to A$70 billion in 2026–27. The REQ expects that to unwind to A$42 billion in real terms by 2030–31.

Iron ore: still the biggest, and shrinking

Iron ore earnings were A$123 billion in 2025–26. The REQ forecasts A$107 billion in 2026–27, then A$96 billion in 2027–28 and A$79 billion by 2030–31. The last three figures are real, in 2026–27 dollars. The department expects prices to fall as global supply rises, and it names Simandou among the new supply.

Iron ore stays Australia's largest export throughout the outlook. But its share is already shrinking. On the department's nominal numbers it falls from about 30.5% of resource and energy export earnings in 2025–26 to about 25.4% in 2026–27 (our calculation).

The spot market isn't pushing back. Mysteel's SEADEX 62% Australian Fines index was US$96.65/dmt CFR Qingdao on 25 September, down US$1.55 on the week.

What the transition metals add

Copper: A$14 billion in 2025–26, rising to A$19 billion in real terms by 2030–31. Prices are forecast to average US$13,570/t in 2027 and US$11,600/t in real terms in 2031.
Critical minerals: the department's total, including lithium and nickel, is A$25 billion in real terms in 2026–27, easing to A$22 billion by the end of the outlook.
Lithium: nearly A$10.2 billion in 2025–26, rising to over A$16.6 billion in 2026–27, then moderating to about A$13.6 billion in real terms by 2030–31.

Put iron ore and critical minerals side by side in 2026–27 dollars. Over 2026–27 to 2030–31, iron ore falls A$28 billion, from A$107 billion to A$79 billion, and critical minerals fall A$3 billion, from A$25 billion to A$22 billion (our arithmetic on the REQ's real figures). The REQ doesn't give a 2026–27 copper figure, so copper can't be put on the same basis. Its whole 2030–31 total is still smaller than iron ore's forecast decline.

One caution: 2025–26 figures are nominal, and the 2030–31 figures quoted here are real. Mixing them overstates or understates the change. We have only compared like with like.

Gold takes second place, eventually

Gold earnings are forecast to fall from about A$72 billion in 2025–26 to A$68 billion in 2026–27. The department says gold will overtake LNG to become the second-largest export "over the next few years". That needs a caveat. The same REQ forecasts LNG at A$70 billion in 2026–27, so on its own numbers gold moves into second place after that year, not this one. The gold price is estimated to have averaged US$4,400/oz in the September quarter, falling to US$3,760/oz in real terms by 2031.

The long game

The REQ's forecasts are ordinary in themselves. Iron ore normalises, energy spikes then fades, gold holds up. The useful part is what they add up to. The critical-minerals story is real, but in the department's own numbers it is a A$20-something-billion business. Iron ore is a A$100-billion business that is forecast to shrink. Critical minerals are worth building. They aren't a replacement for iron ore within this forecast window, and royalty and budget planning should assume that.

Opinion and commentary. Facts are sourced above. Not investment advice. Do your own research.